Airlines are slashing capacity as Canadians lose interest in visiting the US.
Travel data firm OAG said that bookings on flights from Canada to the US have fallen by more than 70% every month through September. It compared the number held as of this week versus the same time last year.
Across the same period, the data from Cirium, an aviation analytics firm, showed a roughly 23% decline in bookings — for flights from Canadian cities to New York, Miami, Denver, Chicago, and Los Angeles over the next three months.
Filings show airlines have responded by cutting capacity by some 320,000 seats over the next seven months, per OAG.
It reported a decline in capacity on flights between Canada and the US every month through October. For July and August, the decrease was as high as 3.5%.
"This sharp drop suggests that travelers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute," said John Grant, chief analyst at OAG.
Comparing April 2025 and 2024, Cirium's data showed a 1.6% decline in the number of flights scheduled between the US to Canada — and a 2.7% decrease in their capacity.
Air Canada cut 468 flights or 8.2%, and Flair Airlines has slashed more than a third of its flights, per Cirium.
However, its data also showed US airlines and Canadian budget carrier Porter have increased their operations.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told a JPMorgan conference earlier this month the carrier was seeing a "big drop in Canadian traffic going into the US."
Some airlines are instead hoping that transatlantic flights will help replace the lost capacity.
WestJet, Canada's second-biggest carrier, has canceled routes between New York and Calgary and between Orlando and Edmonton.
It's adding more routes to Europe, operating its "most significant transatlantic schedule from Atlantic Canada," said John Weatherill, the chief commercial officer.
"We have observed a shift in bookings from the US to other sun destinations such as Mexico and the Caribbean, and to transatlantic destinations," a WestJet spokesperson told The Points Guy. "We remain focused on continuing to fly where there is demand."
An Air Canada spokesperson told The Airline Observer that while bookings have declined, it has seen "significantly less" than the 70% average reported by OAG.
Air Canada and WestJet did not immediately respond to requests for comment sent by Business Insider.
Tourism Economics originally projected a 9% increase in international visitors to the US this year but last month revised that to a 5% decrease, pointing to trade tensions.
After President Donald Trump announced auto tariffs on Wednesday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called them unjustified and a breach of trade deals.
"The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over," he said on Thursday.
Carney plans to discuss a coordinated response with provincial premiers and business figures on Friday and announce retaliatory measures next week.
