For all of the hope in the air earlier this year about rising inventory and easing mortgage rates, the US housing market still looks pretty stuck.
The pace at which US homes are changing owners dropped to the lowest in at least 30 years, according to a new Redfin analysis of MLS and public records data.
The real estate listings site estimated that around 28 out of every 1,000 homes in the US changed hands in the first nine months of the year. That's the lowest turnover rate the housing market has seen year-to-date since at least the 1990s, the firm said in a report last week.
Across the nation, housing turnover rates were the lowest in New York City, where just 10.3 sales were recorded for every 1,000 homes. That was followed by Los Angeles and San Francisco, which both recorded fewer than 15 sales per 1,000 homes year-to-date.
The decline speaks to the enduring slowdown across the broader housing market, particularly in the market for existing homes, which has been stagnant amid hesitation from both buyers and sellers.
Buyers have been held back from the market due to poor affordability, as well as concerns about tariffs and weakening in the US job market, Redfin said.
Meanwhile, some sellers are unwilling to let go of their properties, Chen Zhao, the head of economics research at Redfin, said. That's because many homeowners have financed their homes at historically low interest rates and don't want to finance a new purchase at current rates.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was about 6.17% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, but more than 70% of mortgage borrowers in the US have financed their home at a rate below 5%, Redfin said.
"When both sides hesitate, sales naturally fall to historic lows," Zhao said in a statement.
The housing market saw a burst of optimism when the Fed restarted its rate-cutting cycle in September, but most forecasters don't expect mortgage rates to fall significantly anytime soon.
In May, Redfin said it expected mortgage rates to remain close to 7% through the rest of 2025.
Last month, Zillow said it expected the 30-year fixed rate to hover between 6% and 7% through the end of next year.
