Cannabis

Legal marijuana is set to outsell liquor in Canada by 2020

marijuana
Canada's legal marijuana market is set to be bigger than liquor by 2020. REUTERS/Chris Wattie
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  • Canada became the second country to legalize marijuana on Tuesday evening. 
  • Canada's legal marijuana market will be a $6.5 billion industry by 2020, according to a new report from CIBC, one of the country's largest banks.
  • For comparison, that's far more than Canadians spent on liquor in 2017. 

Canada became the second country in the world (after Uruguay) to legalize marijuana nationwide on Tuesday evening, paving the way for recreational sales of marijuana throughout the country. 

And the country's legal marijuana market is seeing green in more ways than one.

A new report from CIBC, one of Canada's largest banks, estimates marijuana will be a $6.5 billion industry by 2020 in the country.

That's more than the $5.1 billion Canadians spent on liquor in 2017, and it's approaching wine sales. CIBC predicts Canadians will buy over 800,000 kilograms (over 1.7 million pounds) of marijuana by 2020.

The market will be led by adult-use (recreational) consumers, who CIBC predicts will account for 95% of sales, with the other 5% going to medical patients. 

The private sector will be able to generate over $1 billion in earnings on marijuana sales, with the bulk of that flowing into the production side — companies that cultivate and produce marijuana.

CIBC also predicts that mergers and acquisitions in the sector will continue at a "frenetic pace," as producers seek to acquire medical expertise and elbow into new markets.

As one of Canada's "Big Five" banks, CIBC's report on the cannabis sector is a sign that large, institutional investors — at least in Canada — are taking a serious look at the space after remaining mostly hands-off.

Canada is set to legalize marijuana nationwide this summer, with retail sales likely to begin in September, depending on the province. 

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Jeremy is the founder and editor-in-chief of Cultivated Media, a newsletter bringing readers inside the emerging cannabis industry. Beyond his reporting, Jeremy is studying for his MBA at Columbia Business School and holds a certificate in cannabis pharmacology from the University of Vermont where he studied as a cannabis media fellow. Jeremy was formerly a senior reporter at Insider where he focused on the cannabis industryJeremy has covered the bumpy rollout of Canada's cannabis legalization, the boom in cannabis companies going public (and the resulting fallout), multibillion-dollar mergers between cannabis companies and corporations from other industries, the ongoing health effects from vaporizers, the mislabeling of CBD products, and how the world's largest financial, legal, and political institutions are reacting to and planning for legalization. He has also gotten scoops and broken news on layoffs affecting cannabis companies, startups raising money, banks and law firms building specialized cannabis practices, tracked which companies and individuals are profiting from cannabis, and profiled some of the top executives, investors, and leaders in the industry.He is a sought-after expert on cannabis business and policy, frequently speaking to the media and at industry conferences.