Russia is likely increasing its capacity to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure over the winter, as it did last year, the UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Saturday.
Russia's use of air-launched cruise missiles has reduced since April 2023, and Russian leaders have highlighted efforts to increase production of them, it said.
This suggests that Russia will likely be able to generate a "significant" stockpile of the weapons and there is a "realistic possibility" they will be used to strike Ukraine's energy infrastructure targets in the winter, according to the UK ministry.
Last winter, Russia conducted mass long-range strikes against such targets, cutting off electricity, heat, and water to millions of civilians.
Those attacks primarily used air-launched cruise missiles, such as the AS-23a Kodiak, the UK ministry said.
The strategy caused huge damage to Ukraine's power system, and the country is still working to repair infrastructure, gas storage, and other measures to counter further strikes this winter, according to the think tank The Atlantic Council.
Ukraine is better prepared this year, but a few well-aimed strikes could again cause an energy crisis, the think tank said.
