AI spending has grown to be so enormous that it might be a driving force for the entire economy, not just an engine for stock-market gains.
In a note on Tuesday, George Saravelos, Deutsche's global head of FX research, argued that if US tech companies hadn't dramatically ramped AI capex this year, the economy would be in a recession or on the edge of one.
His view comes a day after Nvidia announced a $100 billion investment in OpenAI as part of a partnership that will help it build and scale data centers using Nvidia's hardware.
"The good news to all of this is that the AI super-cycle may be helping mute the negative demand (tariffs) and supply (immigration) shocks hitting the US economy right now," Saravelos wrote. "It may not be an exaggeration to write that NVIDIA — the key supplier of capital goods for the AI investment cycle — is currently carrying the weight of US economic growth."
However, he also raised questions about the future of such spending, and what it could mean once the colossal capex in recent years begins to wane.
"The bad news is that in order for the tech cycle to continue contributing to GDP growth, capital investment needs to remain parabolic. This is highly unlikely."
That raises some difficult questions for investors to consider as they prepare for the economic shifts of 2026, and pencil in AI as a driver of both economic growth and stock market returns. Growth in 2025 is being driven by the buildout of the underlying AI infrastructure, but there will come a day when those projects are completed.
"Once the factories have been built, will the productivity gains from AI take over?" Saravelos asked. "And how globally disseminated will those benefits be as opposed to the location of the factories themselves?"
He added that the bank hasn't answered those questions yet, but that the firm's analysts are factoring them into their outlook for the US dollar in the coming year.
